Nova Edição do Curso sobre Avaliação de Jazigos e outros Activos Minerais

IST (FUNDEC – 21, 22 e 23 de Junho 2017) – Luís Chambel (Sínese) e Jorge de Sousa (IST)

O curso destina-se a engenheiros de minas e geólogos, estudantes de licenciaturas e mestrados nas áreas da engenharia de minas e geologia, gestores de empresas mineiras, analistas de bancos e empresas do sector financeiro com atividade no sector dos recursos minerais.

Para obter o programa do curso, clique aqui: programa-avaliacao-jazigos_jun2017.

A ficha de inscrição pode ser obtida aqui: ficha-de inscrição-avaliacao-jazigos_jun2017

Após um superciclo de expansão de produção (preços e volumes), a indústria mineral encontra-se numa fase caracterizada pela incerteza quanto às perspectivas futuras, por uma tendência geral de baixa de produção e acréscimo da volatilidade de preços. As decisões de investimento ou desinvestimento ou financiamento dum projeto de prospecção ou exploração de um depósito mineral são críticas em qualquer fase do ciclo económico; são especialmente relevantes em situações como as atuais.

Aquelas decisões baseiam-se, em última análise, na capacidade de avaliar corretamente os jazigos e minas, isto é, de estimar custos (OPEX e CAPEX), receitas e risco associados à mineração do jazigo com base nas características da mineralização (e.g. volume, teor e preço unitário da mineralização e suas distribuições espaciais) e do maciço (e.g. hidrogeologia, geotecnia) e nas condições operacionais e de mercado (atuais e previsíveis).

O curso tem como objectivo fornecer aos participantes as bases teórico-práticas necessárias para avaliar jazigos e outros ativos minerais. Com este curso, os formandos desenvolverão competências para calcular o valor de jazigos e outros ativos minerais, estimando, classificando e reportando os recursos e reservas de jazigos minerais aplicando padrões internacionais. O curso apresenta de forma interligada um conjunto de metodologias, conceitos e ferramentas úteis na avaliação de jazigos e ativos minerais, nomeadamente:

  • Modelo DCF (discounted cash flow)
  • Normas internacionais – NI – 43.101 e CIM (Canadá), PERC (União Europeia), Nações Unidas, SME (Estados Unidos).
  • Métodos quantitativos, estatísticos e geoestatísticos de cálculo de recursos e reservas.
  • Métodos de avaliação de jazigos e concessões.
  • QA/QC, competent/qualified person.
  • Avaliação de risco.

O curso é apresentado recorrendo a casos práticos de avaliação de jazigos e outros activos minerais, nacionais e internacionais.

Para obter mais informações, contactar luischambel@sinese.pt.

wrong, something is very wrong

RISK UNDERVALUATION IN MINERAL PROJECTS

Reporting to markets should (have to!) be complete, independent and competent.

Risk is a key factor; in most cases, along with commodity price, the most important variable defining a project’s value. The importance of a good estimate of the risk measure (the discount rate in DCF models) cannot be overemphasized.

Yet, something is wrong, very wrong:

  • In most cases (in a sample of 77 documents reporting pre-feasibility, feasibility studies and valuation exercises of operating assets), the magical discount rates used in DCF are 5% and 8%, accounting for 26% and 27% of the cases (10% accounts for 17%). In 75% of the analised cases, the used discount rate is ≤ 8%. Let’s say you are an investor, would you accept a lower than 8% rate in most mineral projects?
  • The 5% magical number is pervasive in gold projects. A new rule can almost be written; IF gold THEN 5%.
  • Reports include countless pages of technical minutia and detail of doubtful utility for the average investor; yet only a handful of them has any discussion or justification of the chosen discount rate.
  • Country risk is irrelevant; I will grant that the 77 sample is relatively small but the anecdotal evidence shows that the same risk is attributed to projects in the US and Canada or in Burkina Faso and Colombia.

Please bear in mind these are preliminary results; as more data is compiled, new trends may develop. Although I tried to have a random sample, diamond and gold projects may be overrepresented (20 and 21 out of 77, respectively).

I will present these and other results at SME’s Mining Finance Conference in NYC on May 1 and 2, a little more than a week from now. If you are attending, I would like to discuss in person the reasons behind this and how should this (can it?) be remediated – or shouldn’t reporting to markets be complete, independent and competent?

Being a member of SME and of the Society of Economic Geologists – SEG I will try to discuss this issue within these professional organisations. Your comments (in person or through online fora) are always welcome.

Current Trends in Mining Finance Conference, New York 2017

SME – Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration
5th Annual Current Trends in Mining Finance (CTMF) Conference
New York, April 30th – May 3rd, 2017

Managing through the Cycle,
Investing for the Future

SME_HORZ

Intended for senior executives and mining industry specialists, bankers, financial analysts, investors, portfolio managers, and engineers, the CTMF Conference bring influential experts together to discuss opportunities, current trends and issues that affect mining and project finance, investment, raising capital, and project management, smart use of data and technology to manage project costs and risks.

The New York Section of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration is the host and organizer of the SME’s annual Current Trends in Mining Finance Conference. In the heart of New York (where else?), the CTMF Conference format encourages networking and discussions  with colleagues, fellow professionals and key experts – at the Sunday Dinner, breakfasts, breaks, lunches and evening receptions and workshops.

Read the 2017 Conference’s Agenda here.
Please note, schedule and content is subject to change.
To check for any updates, revisit the Conference’s website.
Register here. Questions, comments, suggestions: Tim Alch.

The organisation thanks Shearman & Sterling LLP, the host of the 2017 CTMF Conference again at its conference facilities in  Midtown Manhattan. We also thank the Government of Quebec as a returning as Sponsor of the Monday May 1st Lunch – a Senior Official from Quebec will be a Key Note speaker.

Quebec will  also host an evening reception on Monday May 1st at their offices in Rockefeller Center to which  conference delegates will be invited.
Quebec is also returning with a delegation of mining companies.

At the dinner on Sunday April 30th, 2017 Neal Rigby, PhD, CEng, AIME, MIMMM, Corporate Consultant (Mining) at SRK Consulting will be one of two Guest Speakers. The Sunday dinner – after two pre-conference workshops – is an enjoyable time to meet others, including members of the New York finance, investment and analyst community.

 SME also thanks the other sponsors including:

Newmont Mining Corporation, EnviroSuite, Dassault Systemes, SRK Consulting,
Ernst & Young LLP, Hatch Ltd., Matamec Explorations,
Nemaska Lithium, Abernathy MacGregor, Golder Associates,
BDO USA LLP, Agapito Associates and others

Contact Tim Alch if you have questions and or would like to join in the support of CTMF with these  and other leading firms. Start improving your ROI by registering before March 31st: REGISTRATION.

Registration includes breakfasts, lunches and receptions on Monday, May 1st and Tuesday, May 2nd. The dinner on Sunday, April 30th and workshops are separate fees.

Gold trends last year

For those that missed it, World Gold Council released a report a few days ago about the gold trends in 2016. World Gold Council report highlights:

  • 2016 was the second best year for ETFs on record. Global demand for gold-backed ETFs and similar products was 531.9t – the highest since 2009. Q4 saw outflows.

  • The gold price ended the year up 8%. Having risen 25% by the end of September, gold relinquished some of its gains in Q4 following Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech and the FOMC’s interest rate rise.
  • 2016 saw a 7-year low for jewellery demand.bRising prices for much of the year, regulatory and fiscal hurdles in India and China’s softening economy were key reasons for weakness in the sector.
  • India’s shock demonetisation policy brought the market to a virtual standstill. An initial rush for gold following the policy announcement came to a swift halt in the ensuing cash crunch.

You may download the full report report here.

Updated editions of all Blue Books of gemmological standards and nomenclature on CIBJO website

The six CIBJO Blue Books are definitive sets of grading standards and nomenclature for diamonds, coloured gemstones, pearls, coral, precious metals, and gemmological laboratories. They are compiled and then are consistently reviewed and updated by the relevant CIBJO Commissions, whose members include representatives of trade organisations and laboratories active in the respective areas of the industry. In the almost complete absence of jewellery industry standards endorsed by the International Standards Organisation (ISO), the CIBJO Blue Books are the most widely accepted set of globally accepted standards.

The updated versions can be downloaded from the following page on the CIBJO website: http://www.cibjo.org/introduction-to-the-blue-books/.

For individuals who are not members of a CIBJO-member organisation, each individual download will cost 9.90 Swiss francs. All six Blue Books (Diamond Book, Gemstone Book, Pearl Book, Coral Book, Precious Metals Book and Gemmological Laboratories Book) can be downloaded as a single package at a discounted rate of 49.90 Swiss francs. For individuals who are members of an organisation that belongs to CIBJO, he or she is entitled to receive the CIBJO Blue Books free of charge. They should contact the organisation of which they are members to arrange delivery of the relevant Blue Books by email.

(excerpts from a FEBRUARY 13, 2016 CIBJO press release – the underlining is ours)

EU agrees law to curb flow of conflict minerals – much ado about nothing

According to REUTERS (WORLD NEWS | Tue Nov 22, 2016 | 1:47pm EST), The European Union agreed a deal on Tuesday to stem the flow of gold and other metals used to fund armed conflicts or produced in conditions that breach human rights.

EU importers of tin, tungsten, tantalum, gold and their ores will from 2021 have to carry out checks on their suppliers in legislation that will also apply to smelters and refiners.

Human rights campaigners said the agreement was a half-hearted first step, with imports of finished products that may contain the minerals not included and an end result that exempted a large number of companies.

To read it in full: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-conflict-id

Much ado about nothing, one of my favourite Shakespeare plays.